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Industry experts have shown considerable doubt regarding optimistic predictions that US energy majors will swiftly commit tens of billions of dollars to rebuild the country's dilapidated energy sector.

Requirement of Absolute Assurances

Without an solid promise of full reimbursement from the Washington, specialists predict international firms to proceed with extreme caution.

“It is too early to discuss any upcoming plans,” an official commented recently.

The optimistic timeline of less than 18 months has been boldly proposed. Nevertheless, expert analyses indicate a longer timeline.

A More Realistic Schedule

“It is likely going to take three years for any meaningful recovery in production,” noted an industry expert.

Experts believe oil companies would likely spend:

• Initial phase: Securing new regulatory frameworks.
• The second year: Investing in rebuilding of equipment.
• Final phase: Reaching a position to meaningfully increase output.

This would lead to an rise of around 500,000 barrels per day perhaps by 2029.

Desire Versus Appetite for Spending

There is a key distinction between multinationals’ interest and their readiness to commit heavily.

“In my view their curiosity is an eight, on a scale of ten. I think their appetite is a four or five, because there is a lack of certainty yet.”

Experienced diplomats in the country echo this sentiment. They believe that majors will publicly call it fantastic while privately acting with great care.

The Vast Price Tag

The monetary investment would be enormous. Independent estimates suggest that increasing production by between half a million and a million bpd would require over $10 billion in capital spending over two to three years.

Yet, rebuilding production to previous levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a monumental $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Outstanding Issue of Federal Guarantees

The suggestion of oil giants being paid back by the government has been repeatedly raised. But, specific plans on such a mechanism have so far not been provided.

This lack of clarity is the main factor behind the sector's caution. Firms seek protection against sovereign risk and the chance that a subsequent government could refuse any agreement.

“They must be shielded from nationalization, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela before.”

In summary, while rhetorical optimism runs high, the practical risks suggest a path of measured steps for potential significant financial commitment in the country's oil sector.